The Armenian Sentinel

 

 

1. ELECTION 2000 SPECIAL
Crunching the numbers – a break down of each race

By Sasha Boghosian and Ardashes Kassakhian

There has been much speculation about which party will carry the 27th Congressional District, as well as all of the State districts that fall within the same area. Republicans say that they will prevail; Democrats make the same claim. There are many factors that effect the outcome of elections. Perhaps the most important one is the breakdown of voter registration numbers in each district. In order to get a clearer picture of what to expect, TAS analyzed voter registration figures for the region - public information that is available through the California Secretary of State’s office (www.ss.ca.gov) and the County Registrar’s office (reglec.co.la.ca.us). The first lesson of politics is that nothing is ever set in stone. Nevertheless, using registration numbers, TAS will attempt to shed light on the party breakdown of the districts encompassing Glendale, Burbank, Hollywood and their environs.

The 27th Congressional District
The 27th CD was once solid Republican territory. Today, due to a growth in its immigrant population, as well as other factors, this district is no longer a Republican stronghold. In fact, Democrats have a 45% to 37% registration edge over Republicans. This fact may have significant ramifications for Republicans in the upcoming November elections. Based strictly on the numbers, a Democrat candidate has a better chance of getting elected than does a Republican. In 1998, however, Barry Gordon, the Democratic challenger, lost by 5000 votes to the incumbent, Rep. James Rogan. But Democrats felt more comfortable after the Primary elections on March 7, when State Sen. Adam Schiff topped Rogan by 2270 votes, receiving a total of 70,449 votes to the Republican incumbent’s 68,179. The overall turnout of voters was also far greater among Democrats than Republicans. Republicans expected a higher turnout because the Presidential race during the Primaries was much more competitive for them - with Texas Governor George W. Bush and Senator John McCain (R-AZ) both garnering strong support - than for the Democrats, with Vice President Al Gore and former Senator Bill Bradley (D-NJ). So far, this has been one of the most expensive Congressional races ever and as we enter the home stretch expect to hear more from both candidates.

The 21st State Senate District
The 21st SD covers Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena, South Pasadena, Altadena, San Marino, Silver Lake, La Canada-Flintridge, Los Feliz, Temple City, Toluca Lake, Sun Valley and a portion of the City of Los Angeles. Democrats now make up 44% of registered voters, contrasted with 33% for Republicans. An eleven percent registration edge makes this district a Democrat stronghold. In this year’s Primary elections, Democrats took a total of 113,541 votes, compared to 61,885 for Republicans. The race for this seat, being run by State Assemblyman Jack Scott and South Pasadena Councilman Paul Zee is for all intensive purposes already over. State Assemblyman Scott has solid support among Democrats. Coupled with his good name recognition, this is Jack Scott’s race to lose.

 

The 43rd State Assembly District
This district has also undergone an identity change in the last four years. Today, 45% of the 173,853 registered voters in the district are Democrats, and 35% are Republicans. In the Primary elections, Democrats took 38,566 total votes, compared to 28,173 by the Republicans. In any other election year, this seat would be in the bag for a Democrat candidate. Not so this year. Running on the Republican ticket is Craig Missakian, who received a total of 16,256 votes in the Primary. This is significantly less than the 18,695 votes received by the Democratic candidate, Dario Frommer. However, this does not tell the complete story. The focus of this race has become the 15,609 votes received by Democratic candidate Paul Krekorian, who lost to Frommer in the Primaries. Krekorian earned a significant portion of the Armenian vote in this district in March. Those votes have become the focus of this race. The question is whether all Armenians will vote for Missakian and if they do whether it will be enough to carry him over Frommer. Missakian recently received the Armenian National Committee endorsement which bolsters his Armenian base. Missakian has linked his campaign efforts up with the embattled incumbent Rep. Rogan hoping to secure the vital Republican base that he will need to make a go of it. Based strictly on the math, this will be a tougher fight for Missakian than for Frommer. But with more than a month to go until Election Day, this is still anyone’s race.

The candidates have solid support within their party, and are now looking to the Armenian vote to push them over the top and onto victory. There are approximately 25,000 registered Armenians in the region, which constitute roughly a 15% slice of the total voting population. Of all registered Armenian-American voters, about 40% turn out to vote. This number is nearly double the overall voter turnout, making the Armenian voting bloc even more significant. Look for the Armenian vote to determine the outcome of all of the close races on November 7th. The Armenian community has done a good job of lending its support to both sides in every closely contested race. Both Republicans and Democrats have significant backing from the major Armenian organizations and groups. This will only serve to solidify partnerships and relationships between the Armenian community and the eventual victors in November.